Every year, millions of people have a bet on the Grand National. Most pick a name they like, follow a newspaper tip, or back the favourite and hope for the best. We decided to do something different. We pulled 10 years of Grand National data and ran it through Race Advisor’s analysis tools to find the patterns that have consistently separated the horses that win and place from those that don’t. Here’s what the data shows.
Based on 10 years of Grand National data, Jagwar matches the historical winner profile more closely than any other horse in the 2026 field — the only runner to tick all eight patterns we identified. The market favourite, I Am Maximus, ranks fourth. The main reason: he last ran 68 days ago, well outside the preparation window that has historically produced the best results.
The Historical Profile Score is a shortlist tool, not a win prediction. It shows which horses most closely match the profile of past Grand National winners — it does not tell you the probability of winning. A high score means “historically this horse fits well”; it does not mean “back this horse.” Use it to shortlist horses worth investigating further, then combine with current odds, the going report, and — if you have Premium Access — Race Advisor’s Race Predictor for race-day win probabilities. The profile score and the Race Predictor are measuring different things and are designed to be used together.
This is not a tip. It’s a data analysis. We’re not telling you who to back — we’re showing you what the numbers say and letting you decide what to do with them.
Ground Conditions and Weather
Current going: Good to Soft. Saturday forecast shows heavy rain through the morning, clearing from midday. By the 4pm race, conditions should be drier — showers possible but not sustained. The ground is expected to remain Good to Soft, with a chance of Soft in places depending on overnight totals. Check the official going report on Saturday morning for the final picture.
If the ground turns Soft rather than Good to Soft, completion becomes even more important than profile score — the attrition rate goes up. Horses with the best completion records in the table (I Am Maximus 70%, Panic Attack 69%, Jagwar 66%) would be worth looking at more closely. Horses already flagged with falls risk in recent form (Haiti Couleurs, Captain Cody, Quai De Bourbon) become higher risk still. If going improves toward Good, speed figures matter more — which would favour Iroko and Oscars Brother (best-vs-average speed gaps in the field). Check the Saturday morning going report — that’s more useful than any forecast.
The historical statistics in this analysis come from 393 runner entries across 10 Grand Nationals (2014–2025). The preparation profile analysis draws on 279 Aintree chases from the same period — a larger pool to identify patterns in how horses arrive at the race. Where sample sizes are small (for example, only a handful of winners exist in any profile), we have described the patterns in relative terms rather than treating small differences as conclusive. The Grand National is one of the most unpredictable races in the world, and 10 years of data, while meaningful, is not definitive.
The Eight Patterns We Found in 10 Years of Grand National Data
These are the factors that showed up consistently when we looked at which horses had historically done best in the Grand National. Some are obvious. Some aren’t. All of them came from the data, not from what we expected to find.
When we looked at speed figures, the horses that did best in the Grand National weren’t necessarily the fastest on average. They were the ones whose best run over the past 12 months was significantly higher than their average. In other words, they had something in reserve when it mattered. In the 2026 field, Oscars Brother and Iroko show the biggest gap between their best and average speed figures.
Horses aged 7 or 8 carrying 150lbs or more have placed at 24.6% in our data, compared to between 5.8% and 8.6% for other combinations. Jagwar (7 years old, 150lbs) is the only horse at the front of the market that hits this profile. Other qualifiers include Oscars Brother, Iroko, and Captain Cody — all aged 8 and carrying 150lbs or more.
Race Advisor’s PR Score measures how well a horse’s profile fits the race conditions. Horses below a score of 18.39 have historically produced almost all of the Grand National’s placed runners. Only 10 horses in the current field fall below this threshold.
Horses that had run 26 to 32 days before the Grand National placed at 15.5% — noticeably higher than the 7 to 11% for horses outside that window. Jagwar (32 days), Haiti Couleurs (29), Johnnywho (32), and Iroko (32) all fit. I Am Maximus last ran 68 days ago.
Horses with between 15 and 20 career starts placed at 16.7% in our data. Too few runs and the horse hasn’t been tested enough for this unique trip. Too many and it may be past its best. Haiti Couleurs (16 runs) and Iroko (17) sit right in this range.
Horses arriving with recent wins place at significantly higher rates. Horses with consistent placed efforts without winning also show a strong profile — they place at 10–15% and complete at a higher rate than genuinely out-of-form horses. Every runner in the field has been classified into one of five preparation profiles: Elite Winners (16.9% placing rate), Solid Form (11.6%), Consistent Placers (10.2%), Out of Form (5.9%), and Incident-Prone (6.7%). The profile column in the table shows where each horse sits.
When a horse has two or more falls or pull-ups in recent form, its chance of completing the course historically drops from 46% to 31%. Haiti Couleurs has two pull-ups (despite brilliant wins), Captain Cody has two falls, Quai De Bourbon has four incidents.
Jagwar is the only horse in the 2026 field to match all eight historical patterns simultaneously. Age 7. 150lbs (young and heavy profile). Last ran 32 days ago. 13 career starts. Strong PR Score. Two wins in last 6 runs. No falls or pull-ups in recent form. The gap between Jagwar’s overall profile score and the next horse is the widest anywhere in the data. At 10/1, the market broadly agrees he is a live contender — but the data suggests the market may actually be underestimating him relative to I Am Maximus at 7/1.
Where the Data and the Market See Things Differently
The most useful part of this analysis is finding the horses where what the data shows and what the betting market thinks don’t line up. These are worth looking at before you decide what to do with your bet.
Full Field — How Every Runner Scores
Top 10 at a glance
A one or two line summary for each of the strongest profile matches. For the full field, see the table below.
| # | Horse / Jockey | Odds | Profile Score |
Finish % |
Prep Profile |
Wt | Age | Patterns |
|---|
Scroll right on mobile to see all columns. Click headers to re-sort. GN = previous Grand National form.
See the full race card, current odds, and Race Advisor’s ratings for every Grand National runner.
View the Grand National race cardHow we did this
We looked at 10 Grand Nationals and pulled key data on every runner — age, weight, how long since they last ran, career starts, recent wins, falls history, and Race Advisor’s own ratings including PR Score and speed figures. We then identified the patterns that most consistently appeared in horses that won, placed, or completed the course — these became the 8 findings described above. The Historical Profile Score shows how closely each 2026 runner matches those patterns.
A note on calibration: The patterns in this analysis were identified from studying past winners and placed horses — so by definition, horses that did well historically tended to show more of these patterns. The score is not back-tested against an independent held-out dataset. This means we cannot give you a number like “horses scoring 8+ win X% of the time.” What we can say is that the patterns were derived from real winners, not invented. Use the score as a profile-matching tool, not a probability.
This is based on a dataset of 10 Grand Nationals. The Grand National is one of the most unpredictable races in the world — 30 fences over four miles with 33 runners. Historical patterns can help you think about the race more clearly, but they cannot predict the outcome. Use this as one input alongside your own research, and always bet responsibly.
Common Questions
Based on 10 years of Grand National data, Jagwar scores highest in the analysis — the only horse in the field to match all eight historical patterns. Haiti Couleurs (2nd), Oscars Brother (3rd), and Panic Attack (4th) follow. I Am Maximus, likely to start as favourite, ranks 11th — his preparation form has declined across each of his three Grand National entries. See the note on I Am Maximus in the full field section for more detail.
I Am Maximus won in 2024 and finished second in 2025, which explains the market confidence. But his preparation form has declined in each of his three Grand National entries: 4 wins from his last 6 before the 2024 win, 2 wins before his 2025 second place, and now 0 wins and 2 places. He last ran 68 days before the race — well outside the 25 to 32 day window that has historically produced the best results — and is aged 10. The data classifies him as “Out of Form,” a profile that has produced a 7% placing rate historically. The market is backing his reputation; the data is working from his current preparation.
The Historical Profile Score (out of 10) shows how closely a horse matches the profile of past Grand National winners based on the eight patterns we found in 10 years of race data. A score of 10 means the horse matches all key patterns. It is not a prediction of the winner — it is a measure of how similar the horse’s profile is to horses that have historically done well in the race.
Race Advisor’s PR Score is one of our proprietary ratings — it measures how well a horse’s historical record fits the specific conditions of the race it is about to run. A lower score means a stronger profile match. In the Grand National analysis, horses with a PR Score below 18.39 have historically produced the vast majority of placed runners. You can see the PR Score for every horse on Race Advisor’s race cards.
No. The Grand National is 4 miles 2 furlongs over 30 fences with 33 runners — it is one of the most unpredictable races in the world. Horses that closely match the historical winner profile have tended to do better in the race, but the sport doesn’t always follow patterns. Always do your own research and bet responsibly.
Do the numbers change how you’re looking at the race? We’d love to know your thoughts — leave a comment below, or view the full Grand National race card on Race Advisor before the off.