The Basics of Betting – What type of punter are you?

Contents
Why Do You Bet?
Well that’s an obvious question, you bet because you’re trying to win money. Really? So think about that time when you bet your mates you could climb a tree, there was no financial gain, it was about proving a point. Or when you bet them that the girl at the bar would accept a drink.
I realise we’re in danger of some kind of ersatz Freudian essay, but I’d like us to consider exactly why, how and when we bet, with the hopeful intention of making some money. It’s a fact that the pain of loss lasts longer than the joy of winning. Losing more than you can afford to will have a far greater impact than winning a tidy sum. Chances are you’ve got a story to tell, so please bear that in mind.
I’m not qualified to talk about the dangers of gambling in general and to ignore them would be foolish. If you consider that gambling is causing problems in your life please seek appropriate help. Let’s instead explore backing horses in a positive way, hopefully improving our techniques and profitability.
It’s fair to assume that if you’re reading this article you have more than a passing interest in gambling. Playing cards, football coupons, casinos, you’ve had a go at it all. But ultimately your passion is solving the conundrum that is a horse race, with a view to predicting the outcome. I can’t think of many more enjoyable things in life than sitting down with the Race Advisor and sifting through the cards.
How Often Do You Bet?
Every day? Just at the weekends? Only when you go racing? The answer is irrelevant, I’m inviting you to take a methodical and structured approach. We’ve all been in betting shops and seen blokes rushing around placing bets on every event, scribbling on the betting slips, shouting at the screens: they can’t stop until all the money has gone. If this is you I recommend taking a complete break from punting.
Regardless of how often you bet, discipline yourself by type of race, number of bets and the amount you can afford to lose. Nominate a sum you are prepared to wager over a period of time, whether it’s a day, week or longer. Place your bets and irrespective of the outcome that’s it for that period of time. . No chasing losers or silly bets trying to recoup losses, stick to the plan. Enjoy your wins and learn from your losses, tomorrow is another day.
How Do You Bet?
This may seem an obvious question but actually it’s very nuanced. Do you prefer yankees, placepots and combination forecasts to win singles? Are you really trying to make a long term profit from backing horses or are you hoping for an occasional big win? Or perhaps you don’t care, it’s simply another hobby.
Let’s imagine you’re presented with two guaranteed ways of showing a profit, each demanding that you had to place 100 bets of £10 each. With the first system you’re guaranteed 51 winners at evens and 49 losers, you make a profit. With the second system you are assured of 3 winners at 33/1 and 97 losers, again showing a profit. So with the first system you get to celebrate 51 times and with the second just 3, albeit a bit louder! Ask yourself which suits you best. You see losing runs are demoralising but if you’re happy with that approach, knowing you’ll show a long term profit, don’t be deterred. But there’s plenty of other punters who lose confidence, interest (and run out of money) due to losing runs.
Bookmakers want you to bet in multiples, that’s where most of their profits come from. The vast majority of successful punters will back win or e/w singles, but as we’ve already discussed if you enjoy the thrill of a potential big win by all means incorporate those types of bet into your strategy. Betting in singles can feel restrictive to the casual punter, so be honest with yourself and bet accordingly, above all else it has to be fun and stimulating.
The Importance of Keeping Records
I went on a coach trip organised by a pub to the Derby in the late 80s, well actually I went on a few but this one sits in my mind. One lad lost all his money playing cards on the way there and spent the afternoon cadging money for a drink and a bet. He left Epsom skint and in debt. When we got back to the pub someone asked him how he’d got on: “I backed a couple of winners, probably broke even on the day.”
We all know deluded people like that, don’t be a mug.
If you do nothing else as a result of reading this, I implore you to keep a record of every bet you place. This serves several purposes. Firstly, and most obvious of all, it will prove categorically whether or not you’re showing a profit. Now this may or may not be important to you, but I’d suggest that at the very least you consider yourself to be a knowledgeable and shrewd punter. Keeping records that show wins, losses and the overall state of affairs will indicate how successful you really are. There’ll be losing days, weeks and months, but long term are you showing a profit and if not why not? The brutal reality of your skill as a punter will be shown as a profit or a loss.
As the Race Advisor has a free to use, fully automated bet tracking tool here, there’s no excuse to not record every bet. Please note that you will need to be logged in to use it.
Chances are you’re placing silly bets, fun bets, bets you hadn’t planned to make. Honestly analyse every bet you place, I’ll guarantee that patterns will form that show where your strengths and weaknesses lay and that if you have aspirations as a serious and successful punter you must eradicate the bad bets and concentrate on what you do best. Every week look back on your bets and be honest enough to assess them objectively. Winning or losing, there’s always room for introspection and improvement.
Selection Process and Strategy
Above all else this is the most crucial component in the process of successfully and profitably backing horses on a long term basis. The information available and the differing approaches are both infinite: form ratings, speed ratings, trainer form, the draw, the going, first time blinkers, back from a break, class of race, I could name dozens more. And the crux of the matter is fundamental – you need to establish a process whereby the predicted outcome of a horse race is arrived at through a consistent and logical approach.
Have a look at how you currently arrive at your selections, for example do you concentrate on a certain type of race? Some love nothing more than solving the conundrum of The Stewards Cup or Ebor. Others concentrate on novice chasers, or the all weather. Do you have a scattergun approach where you open the Racing Post or go online and simply back what takes your fancy for no other reason than you’d backed it before, it got beat and you can’t let it go unbacked?
The obvious place to start in any race is the ratings. More often than not a 5 handicap golfer will beat a 12 handicap golfer assuming no shots are given. Their respective handicaps, based on previous performances, are an indication of each golfer’s merit. Now of course there are numerous other factors to take into account, but like a golfer, every racehorse is allocated a rating based on what it has achieved at the track.
The Race Advisor ratings are an obvious and proven place to start, before you assess any race and place a bet ask yourself this fundamental question: which horse is most likely to win this race? Well, the one that runs the fastest is the self evident answer. The skill is in establishing which horse that is, taking many factors into account, but the rating of an individual horse is the absolute start point when comparing a horse’s chances with the other runners in the race. Ignore a horse’s rating at your peril, it won’t guarantee how it will run in the future but it absolutely shows how it’s run in the past, and as with human beings it’s a good place to start the evaluation process. Find a horse that is top of the ratings that is fit and running in suitable conditions and you’ve potentially got a good bet. We’ll look at specialising and playing to your strengths a little later but the Race Advisor Ratings are as good a place to start as anywhere.
Back or Lay
I vividly remember the early days of Betfair, rubbing my hands together in anticipation of the money I was going to make laying horses. And I can also remember the feeling I had when a couple I considered to have no chance won at decent prices. My bank diminished very quickly. There are people that make money from laying on the exchanges, but this requires an entirely different mindset from backing horses.
Would you back a favourite at 1/5? Some would, I’d guess we all have done, but most wouldn’t consider it as part of a strategy. So would you consider laying a horse at 5/1? Because it’s exactly the same thing, the risk and return are identical.
There is no doubt that laying horses can be profitable on a long term basis, but the crux of this article is identifying the type of punter you are. You are never going to get a big win laying without taking a huge risk, if you are happy chipping away with small returns on a regular basis this might be for you. As with every other method, substantial research with trial and error to small stakes is the way ahead.
Bookmaker v Exchanges
This leads us on nicely to the difference between traditional bookmakers, whether online, on course or on the high street, and betting exchanges, the most popular being Betfair. The crucial difference is that an exchange is not a bookmaker, it is an online platform where punters can choose whether to back or lay a horse to a stake and at a price of their own choice. There are numerous advantages to the exchanges: firstly, although a horse may be available to back at, let’s say, 4/1, you are able to request that somebody will lay you 9/2 or 5/1, or indeed any price you wish. There is no guarantee that bet will be matched but it potentially gives you the opportunity obtain higher odds than are available with bookmakers.
Likewise with laying, if you want to lay a horse simply accommodate at the price available or request the price you are prepared to lay at to a certain stake.
This shows the prices and stakes available on each horse. Bear in mind the odds are decimal, therefore 34.0 is 33/1 and 2.7 is 1.7/1, almost 7/4. If you want to lay a horse for £20 at 4/1 your liability is £80 and you must have this amount in your account.
I rarely use bookmakers nowadays. Typically I will look at the racing the evening before or early morning and put up that I wish to back a horse at 6/1, even though the advertised odds are currently 4/1. Quite often that bet will be matched, if not I can cancel it and make another bet at the price available.
In a previous article we looked at backing and laying on the exchanges and also trading. The advice as always is to experiment at small stakes to get the hang of things if this is new to you. By and large the odds on the exchanges are better than those available with bookies and you have the ability to lay as well. If you haven’t already, please do some research.
Value Betting
Probably the most overused and misunderstood expression in racing betting circles is value. I’m going to be honest, 99% of punters, myself included, have little to no idea of what constitutes value in a horse race.
Let’s look at the most rudimentary example of value: a toss of a coin is a true even money chance, there are two possible outcomes with the exact same probability, heads or tails. If you stake £1.00 on heads and somebody flips the coin 1000 times you’ll break even as the probability is it will produce 500 heads and 500 tails. Now let’s imagine you are offered 11/10 heads, you will still lose your £1.00 500 times but the other 500 will return £1.10 each, a profit of £50.00. Anything over evens represents value as it is greater than the true odds.
The same applies with a roll of the dice: there are 6 numbers, the true odds are 5/1. If you back 6 at 11/2 1000 times you are virtually guaranteed a profit as the true odds of 5/1 are less than the price you are able to obtain.
So in theory the same basic rules apply to any horse race, however there are numerous other factors to be taken into account. For decades bookmakers have created a market on horse races, allocating a price to each horse based on assessing the probability of it’s chances of winning the race. At this stage we need to be brutally honest with ourselves: in 99% of cases these bookmakers are far more adept and skilful than you are!
Try this as an experiment, and you’ll need to do it hundreds of times. Look at a race and without checking the forecast prices imagine you are a racecourse bookmaker. Study each horse and set your own market, allocating a price to each horse. Now check the forecast in the Racing Post and see how they compare. Over a period of time you will get an idea of how proficient you are at identifying the real price of a horse when compared with racing professionals. Remember, this is not about finding winners its about assessing chances or probability and forming a market – think like a bookmaker.
To most punters this is far too onerous a task and frankly can be dispiriting when you realise your predictions are miles out! However, as you become more effective you will be able to identify individual horses that you have assessed as having a better or worse chance than is represented in the market. If your judgement is good, this presents opportunities to both back and lay horses at a value price. If you think a horse should be 6/4 and is 3/1 that is a value bet as far as you are concerned. If you think it should be 3/1 but is 6/4 either leave it alone and examine how you arrived at your conclusion.
The whole point is that a toss of the coin is a factual probability, even money each of two, but a horse race is far more subjective. The start point is, having found a selection, decide at what price you are prepared to back it. If that price is available then back it, if the price available is considerably higher by all means back it, but revisit the selection and examine how you came to your original conclusion.
Books have been written about this subject, it is the Holy Grail of betting and almost impossible to quantify in a few paragraphs. The golden rule is to not back a horse at a price shorter than which you assess it’s chances. You’ll miss some winners but save a lot more by not backing horses at false odds.
Staking Plans and Money Management
Let’s carry on with the assumption that you fully intend to make a profit from backing horse, that you accept you will back lots of losers but overall show a long term profit. There are endless pastimes that cost a fortune and backing horses can be one of them, but it needn’t be like that. A consistent and logical approach to selection must be supported by a similar staking plan, let’s take a look at some examples.
The first and absolute golden rule is you must set aside a bank that you are going to bet from, this will vary according to your circumstances. Set aside a sum of money that will not impact on your everyday living, whether that figure is £100 or £10,000 only you know. Let’s imagine you decide to place 10% of the bank on each bet. Unless the vast majority of your bets are on short priced favourites you’ll encounter losing runs that ebb away at your confidence and the bank will disappear in no time. Even if you are backing short prices the funds available won’t sustain losing runs in the long term. I would suggest an absolute maximum of 5% of your bank on any bet, but I’d also be more specific.
Let’s grade our selections into 3 categories. You strongly fancy this horse, it’s top rated with Race Advisor, meets selection criteria in terms of going, distance, fitness and draw, is near the top of the market and everything points to being fully expected to run well. (A point here, if it’s NOT near the top of the market you’re missing something). Place 4% of your bank on this selection, meaning that you can cope with 25 consecutive losers before the bank is empty. I would respectfully suggest that if you strongly fancy 25 horses that all lose you need to re-think how you spend your time!
The next type of bet is 2% of the bank, these would be selections that are high in the ratings and meet the required criteria. Others in the race may be better fancied (a top stable first time in a handicap for example) but you have every reason to suspect your selection has a solid chance. These will generally be in the 4/1-8/1 price range. If all you back is this type of horse you can cope with 50 losers on the trot and still have funds available to bet with.
There is nothing more enjoyable or rewarding, in every respect, than backing a long price winner. From time to time you’ll find a selection that is at or near the top of the ratings that has been out of form, or running in unfavourable conditions, that is ignored in the betting. You have reason to believe it has every chance of running well, place 1% of your bank on these horses. If you are slightly more cautious but confident it can run into a place bet 0.5% each way. These don’t win very often but you ‘ll need 100 on the trot to go skint.
Let’s assume a starting bank of £500, either deposited in Betfair or set aside in a designated betting account. You’re having £20 as a maximum bet, £10 on a “regular” selection and £5 or £2.50 e/w on the long shots. If your selection process is sound you’ll show a long term profit, cope with losing runs and have the occasional long price winner. Discipline is the key, we’ve all had too much on losers and not enough on winners.
And don’t forget, if the bank doubles to £1000 by all means change the stake to reflect the %, but please bear in mind we all have a threshold where a bet becomes too much to cope with. I remember as a teenager having £50 on a short priced favourite, pretty much a week’s wages at the time. Although it won my heart was beating so hard and fast I knew I couldn’t do it again. Establish a bank and stick to it.
Understanding Risk
A natural progression from establishing a starting bank and betting a % of that bank is understanding risk management. It is vital to understand odds expressed as a percentage when assessing the chances of a horse winning a race. Let’s look at the most basic example. Heads or tails is an even money chance or 50%. If you place £1 on heads at evens and the coin is tossed 1000 times you’ll break even. Losing runs and winning runs will occur and you’ll end up with what you started.
If you were able to back heads at 11/10 and you bet the same stake 1000 times you’d make a profit. If heads was 10/11 you’d lose. All very basic.
In the previous chapter we discussed managing our funds in terms of placing bets. Bookmakers are incredibly shrewd and understand percentages and risk management, it is imperative you have at least a basic comprehension of probability expressed as a percentage or fraction. Unless you are betting solely at odds on you will back more losers than winners, and even then the chances are you’ll lose money. Manage risk, bet within a structure, and think long term.
Losing Streaks and Downswings
We all know the feeling: losing photo finishes, placed horses, trouble in running, last fence fallers. There are spells when backing a winner is impossible. This is where establishing a bank, using it accordingly and not chasing losses are essential. Stick with the plan and don’t become disillusioned or reckless.
Having said that, we need to be brutally honest – is your selection process flawed? During bad runs (and we all have them) are you taking short cuts? Not studying form, assessing the conditions, looking at trainer form or jockey bookings, backing horses on a hunch or blindly following tipsters. Show me a successful punter and I’ll show you someone who spends a good deal of time methodically analysing races. The chances are if you’re having a bad run you need to rethink your approach and tweak it. 99% perspiration and 1% inspiration, as the saying goes.
Playing to Your Strengths
This really is down to individuals and what interests you. Plenty won’t touch the all weather but others enjoy it. 24 runner sprint handicap at Goodwood? Novice chasers? If you’re adopting a scattergun approach you can guarantee losses. Whatever rocks your boat ensure you specialise in specific types of races, you’ll get a feel for the type of horse that has a chance of winning and if you’re concentrating on, let’s say, 2 mile chasers at the northern tracks, you’ll get to know the runners, their way of running and if they’re in form. Assessing a two year old maiden at Newmarket requires a completely different skill set than the Welsh Frand National – establish what you’re good at and play to your strengths.
In Conclusion
I opened this article by posing the question “Why do you bet?”.
That almost seems obvious, silly even. But think about it, are you genuinely betting to show a profit or are simply a punter who likes the odd bet?
I suspect, if you’ve got this far, that you consider yourself to be the former, in which case it’s time for some self analysis and to follow some golden rules:
- Set aside a betting bank, establish your staking plan and stick to it
- Formulate your selection process and avoid impulse bets and chasing losses – stick to the plan
- Be honest and flexible, if something isn’t working assess why and have a rethink
- Before you back or lay a horse decide what price you are prepared to take and don’t waver, if you think it should be 3/1 don’t back it at 2/1. And if your prices are consistently out of line with the odds available you’re doing something wrong
- If you do nothing else, record every bet and keep a record of your profit or loss. You’ll have good runs and bad but ultimately this is hard evidence of your punting ability
- And finally, enjoy your betting, if it becomes a chore or a problem its time to move on
Good luck.
Great article, sometimes you need a reminder not to let the basics slip.
Thanks Chris
Yes,a great article and interesting. Ok, I know a lot of it already, but after following a system for 15 months and making a good return it has gone pear-shaped. Is that because the Ratings are constantly being refined? or because the system has ‘had its day’? The second thought is unlikely due to the selection process, I would assume that it’s the first, or could it be the time of year? The system suffered a downward trend this time last year (but not as bad as this one). I think the answer lies in focusing on a type of race, as you say. I’ll let February pass and if the recovery doesn’t show up then I will focus on Race type and see if it improves………
Thanks for the feedback Nick, we constantly need to review our approach – nothing good lasts forever!