A tipster’s sales page is a lovely thing. Profit graphs that climb left to right. A strike rate quoted to one decimal place. A list of recent winners with their starting prices in bold. Testimonials from “Dave in Doncaster” who quit his job.
What the page cannot tell you is the one thing you need to know. Would following this person pay off for you, on your own bankroll, after the subscription fee?
The good news is that you can find out with a fifteen-minute calculation before you hand over your card details. Some tipsters are well worth following, and this check is how you spot them.
In short. Take the tipster’s claimed strike rate, return on investment (ROI), recommended bankroll and bets per month. Turn the claim into the unit stake you would need to hit your monthly target after the subscription fee. Then compare the claim with what real UK racing data shows is achievable.
Why does a profit graph tell you so little on its own?
A rising graph is easy to produce in racing. A single 33/1 winner adds 33 points to a level stakes graph in one go, and that jump can sit on top of weeks of small losses. A graph only becomes convincing when plenty of bets stand behind it.
So the numbers behind the graph matter more than its shape. Strike rate, ROI and bankroll requirements tell you whether a service can keep going over the next three months, not just the last three.
What do real UK results give you to measure a claim against?
Here is the useful yardstick. The table shows how three well-known signals performed across Great Britain and Ireland racing. A/E means actual wins divided by the wins the odds implied, so 1.00 means horses won exactly as often as their prices suggested.
| Signal | Sample | Win rate | A/E | Return | Longest losing run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair SP favourite | 167,257 races | 34.4% | 1.00 | -1.4% | 28 |
| VDW Rank 1 (one of our rating systems) | 153,920 races | 21.6% | 0.99 | -3.8% | 59 |
| Race Predictor top horse | 167,314 runners | 25.5% | 1.01 | 0.0% | 36 |
The figures cover 1 July 2013 to 14 October 2026, at Betfair SP, with one point level stakes and 2% commission taken off. Fallers and pulled-up horses count as losers. They describe that stretch of racing and will not repeat exactly, so read them as a snapshot.
Return is profit or loss as a percentage of the points staked. Longest losing run is the most bets in a row without a winner.
Now put a tipster’s claim next to that table.
- A strike rate of 20% to 30% sits in the same territory as our rating systems, so it is believable.
- A strike rate around 34% is describing the favourite, which is a very strong selection to match.
- A strike rate of 40% or more only means something next to the average odds. At short prices it is ordinary favourite territory, and at bigger prices it would be outstanding. Ask for both numbers, plus the return at Betfair SP, and look for a large sample. Fifty bets over six weeks is too small to judge.
Even the favourite had a stretch of 28 races without a win, so a losing run in the double figures is a normal part of racing. What you want to know is how long a tipster’s longest run has been, so you can plan your bankroll around it.
The ROI claim is the second filter. The favourite returned -1.4% after commission, so a service quoting 15% ROI is claiming to do far better than the market. That can be true at longer prices, and it deserves a large sample before you rely on it. Ask for results at Betfair SP after 2% commission. That is the figure you would actually bank.
Which four numbers should you ask a tipster for?
Before you do any calculation, ask for four numbers. If the sales page hides any of them, that tells you what you need to know, and you can move on to a service that shares them.
1. Strike rate. The percentage of selections that win at level stakes. Lower strike rates bring longer losing runs, so a 15% strike rate suits you only if the ROI makes up for it and you are comfortable seeing eight or ten losers in a row. Honest tipsters say so. Be wary of words like “consistent” with no numbers behind them.
2. Return on investment (ROI). Profit per unit staked, as a percentage. A level stakes ROI of 10% to 20% over a large sample is a strong result. Anything quoted at 50% or more over a small sample is more likely a lucky spell than a lasting edge. Always ask how many bets, and at what prices.
3. Recommended bankroll in units. A serious tipster tells you how many unit stakes to set aside to ride out their service’s longest losing run. 50 units is common and 100 is more cautious. A figure below 30 suggests the tipster has not run their own numbers fully.
4. Average bets per month. Your monthly profit is bets × unit stake × ROI. A service with 120 bets a month builds a clear picture much faster than one with 20, which helps you judge it sooner.
Then ask for the full record. That means every bet listed at Betfair SP, the total number of bets, and the losing months as well as the good ones. Four headline figures can be chosen to look their best, whereas an itemised record shows the whole picture. A service that is proud of its results will be happy to share it.
How do you turn a tipster’s claim into a real bankroll?
Imagine a service with this pitch. A 24% strike rate. A 15% ROI at level stakes. A recommended bankroll of 50 units. About 125 bets a month. The subscription costs £37 a month, and you would like £200 a month after paying it.
Step one: work in units. One unit on every selection means staking 125 units a month. A 15% ROI on those 125 units staked gives 125 × 0.15 = 18.75 units of profit a month, on average. The word “average” matters. Some months will bring 5 units and some 35. The 18.75 only shows up across a good run of bets, which is why a few hundred recorded bets, usually three months or more, is the right trial for any service you take seriously.
Step two: turn units into pounds. To end up with £200 after the £37 fee, you need £237 of betting profit a month. £237 ÷ 18.75 = £12.64, so a unit of £13.
Step three: size the bankroll. £13 a unit across 50 units is a £650 bankroll. That is money you set aside for this service alone.
If £650 is more than you want to commit, simply choose a target that fits. With a £6 unit, the bankroll is £300 and the average monthly profit is 18.75 × £6 = £112.50. After the £37 fee that leaves about £75 a month. Smaller stakes give a smaller target and a calmer ride, and the method works the same way at every size.
These are averages from a made up example, and no service can promise a profit. The calculation shows you what a claim would need to deliver for you, which makes it easy to compare services fairly.
What three steps should you take before you sign up?
First, ask for the claim and the full record in writing, with the sample size. Strike rate, ROI, average odds, average bets per month and the longest losing run in the last twelve months. A service that shares its longest losing run is telling you exactly what your bankroll has to cover.
Second, run the unit stake and bankroll calculation for your own target. If the bankroll it asks for is more than you can comfortably set aside, lower the target or look for a service that fits your budget.
Third, commit to at least three months and record every bet at Betfair SP. A good service often looks ordinary in month one and clearer by month three. If it sends fewer bets a month, give it longer, until you have a few hundred bets to judge. Pick a service that lets you run that test, with enough bankroll to see it through calmly.
For a refresher on the numbers used here, our guide to A/E ratios explains how to tell whether a price was fair.
What is the takeaway?
Judging a tipster comes down to a handful of numbers you can check yourself. Know what a believable strike rate looks like, ask for the sample size, and match the bankroll to your own budget. Tipsters can be a useful part of your racing, and the calculation keeps you in charge of the decision.
If you want a baseline you can use on every race today, open today’s race cards. They show the PR and VDW rankings alongside Race Predictor probabilities on every runner, so you can compare a tipster’s selection with what the data rates highest.
